Richard B. Jones's 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk PDF

By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Learn how to observe the elemental points of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all prefer to do away with probability from our decision-making, yet regrettably this aim is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board resolution holds the facility to take on the entire surprises lifestyles throws at us. up to we attempt to prevent them, negative results will necessarily happen. . . occasionally. but there are stuff you can do to aid stack the deck on your prefer. You don't need to be a statistician or mathematician to develop into a professional in coping with the future's uncertainty. 20% probability of Rain allows the reader to shape a powerful figuring out of hazard that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the elemental options of chance during the wide use of functional events to aid the reader practice what's realized to a wide selection of situations
  • Providing genuine illustrations of danger research, possibility evaluation, and possibility administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in so much possibility courses
  • Communicating complicated chance thoughts in an easy, transparent, and engaging demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case experiences, from NASA and different industries, supplying the foundation for added discussions and permitting the reader to determine genuine functions of risk-based decision-making
  • From members to companies to govt businesses, chance is the typical denominator. winning thoughts for handling the future's uncertainty or chance could appear uncomplicated and simple at the floor, but they are often tremendous advanced and sophisticated. realizing the simplest how one can hire those multi-faceted strategies is necessary within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. existence is actually a chain of decisions and 20% probability of Rain may help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, advanced, and shrinking world.

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    Additional info for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

    Example text

    The advanced economies are relatively mature and, for most industries, offer modest prospects for growth. In contrast, many developing economies are experiencing much faster growth in virtually every industry ranging from toothpaste and lightbulbs to home appliances, cars, computers, Internet services, and, not surprisingly, even fine wine. Thus any company today that seeks to grow—be it ABB, Samsung, Sony, Coca-Cola, General Electric, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, or Google—has little choice but to go where the growth is.

    In a dynamic environment, we accept the relevance of an opportunistic stance. However, we have observed that, rather than merely muddling through the opportunities as they emerge, effective globalizers engage instead in directed opportunism, that is, opportunism guided by a systematic and logical framework. We present the logical framework below and, in the next chapter, use it to analyze the global expansion strategy pursued by Wal-Mart. The sequence in which a globalizing company enters various markets should depend on two factors: the strategic importance of the market, and the firm’s ability to exploit that market.

    When Wal-Mart embarked on building a global presence, it could choose among a wide array of options as to the regional or country markets that it could enter. In a situation such as this, how does the company decide which markets it should enter first and what its sequence of global expansion should be? c02 1/26/08 1:34 PM Page 31 BUILDING GLOBAL PRESENCE 31 one option is to pursue opportunities in an ad hoc, random fashion. In a dynamic environment, we accept the relevance of an opportunistic stance.

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    20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones


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